Real GDP growth driven by services (43% of GDP) and manufacturing recovery.

↑ From 5.4% in 2024

Moderating due to stable food supply and tighter monetary policy.

↓ From 10.5% in 2024

~2.1 months of import cover — remains a critical vulnerability.

→ Stable if exports grow

Industrial parks and energy sector attract Turkish, Chinese, and Gulf investment.

↑ +8% YoY

+4.9% growth from 2024, led by teff, maize, and pulses.

↑ Driven by irrigation & inputs

Recovery from 2024 slump; global prices stabilize at $215/kg.

↑ +12.5% YoY

+15% expansion from 2024; GERD enables new schemes in Awash & Rift Valley.

↑ Critical for climate resilience

Livestock contributes 68% of agri-GDP in Afar/Somali regions.

↑ Export demand rising

Mid-2025 estimate; urban share reaches 22.5%.

↑ +2.55% annual growth

Remains high despite job creation in industrial parks.

↑ Slight increase from 25.4%

Female: 70.3 yrs | Male: 65.4 yrs

↑ +0.2 from 2024

Driven by Safaricom & MTN rural expansion.

↑ From 28% in 2024

Parallel market may exceed 65 ETB; forex rationing continues.

↓ Further depreciation

Exports: $18.2B | Imports: $24.7B

→ Stable if oil prices hold

June–Sept rains at 95–105% of average — favorable for teff & maize.

→ Low drought risk

Above 1991–2020 baseline; heat stress in lowlands.

↑ Warming trend continues

Phased commissioning begins; full 5,150 MW by 2028.

↑ National grid stability improves

200% annual growth since 2022; drives financial inclusion.

↑ Key for rural economy

Manufacturing

Industrial parks to employ 100,000+ by 2025. Textile exports target $2B by 2026. Key risk: forex shortages for raw material imports.

Tourism

1.2M arrivals (+41% from 2019). New visa-on-arrival for 30+ countries. Revenue: $3.8B. Focus on cultural (Lalibela) and eco-tourism (Simien).

Smallholder Resilience

32% of farmers use climate-smart practices. Drought-resistant seeds cover 1.5M ha. Early warning systems reach 80% of woredas.

Education

Primary completion: 79.2%. Youth literacy gap narrows (59% male vs 46% female). Digital learning pilots in 500 schools.

Key Risks

• Foreign reserves below 3-month import cover
• Debt service = 25% of export earnings
• Climate volatility in Somali & Afar
• Urban youth unemployment >25%
• ETB parallel market premium >10%

Strategic Opportunities

• GERD enables green industrialization
• Digital ID rollout boosts service access
• Agro-processing for export diversification
• Regional integration via AfCFTA
• Youth dividend: 70% under age 30